How Trump is using the 'Madman Theory' to try to change the world (and it's working)

July 5, 2025

President Trump has elevated unpredictability to a foreign policy doctrine, according to political scientists who call this approach the "Madman Theory. " His inconsistent statements and actions—exemplified by his handling of potential military action against Iran—have created uncertainty among both allies and adversaries. This approach has already yielded results with NATO allies, who recently committed to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Who is affected

NATO member countries and their military budgets
European allies who can no longer rely on guaranteed U.S. defense commitments
Ukraine, which faces pressure from Trump despite being an ally
Iran and its nuclear ambitions
The American defense establishment and diplomatic corps
Global security arrangements established after World War II
European nations considering operational independence from the U.S.
Canada, Denmark (regarding Greenland), and Panama (mentioned in Trump's territorial comments)

What action is being taken

European nations are increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from previous commitments
Trump is using unpredictability as a strategic tool in international relations
European leaders are flattering Trump to maintain positive relations
The U.S. conducted military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities
European nations are beginning to consider developing independent defense capabilities
Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz is advocating for Europe to become operationally independent of the U.S.
Trump is conducting personal diplomacy with world leaders, including a recent phone call with Putin

Why it matters

This shift in U.S. foreign policy approach threatens to fundamentally alter the 80-year trans-Atlantic security relationship established after World War II. Trump's unpredictability creates doubt about America's reliability as an ally and negotiating partner, potentially isolating the U.S. and forcing European nations to develop independent defense capabilities. The approach may backfire with adversaries like Iran, with experts suggesting it could accelerate Iran's nuclear weapons program rather than deter it. Additionally, Trump's strategy reveals a changing U.S. priority structure where China is viewed as a bigger threat than Russia, creating a divergence from European security concerns.

What's next

No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC